By Mannava V.K. Sivakumar (Editor), James Hansen (Editor)
In line with a global Workshop held in Geneva in 2005, this booklet studies the advances made to date in seasonal weather predictions and their purposes for administration and decision-making in agriculture. It additionally identifies the demanding situations to be addressed within the subsequent five to ten years to additional increase operational purposes of weather predictions in agriculture, specially in constructing nations.
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Extra info for Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and Challenges
Sample text
However, several characteristics of climate forecasts make assessment of their impacts particularly challenging. Forecasts are inherently probabilistic, and assessing their likely credibility to potential end-users over time is difficult (Ziervogel et al. 2005). In addition to long-term production impacts, they are likely to influence risk in a manner that is difficult to anticipate fully. Finally, if many producers in a region act on forecasts, impacts on commodity prices may be considerable. Ex ante impact assessment serves the two-fold purpose of providing evidence to mobilize resources for a new innovation, and insight to inform targeting (Thornton 2006).
2006) explained, climate information in isolation has relatively little value beyond basic science unless it is integrated into managerial and policy processes. This requires an integrated research program that robustly interacts with and identifies the needs and environment in which decision-makers function. One of the major challenges to promotion of climate forecast applications in most of the economic sectors at the national level is the lack of a clear national climate agenda. Absence of appropriate policy documents leads to problems such as lack of a clear guidance as to which institutions have the main responsibility to produce and distribute climate products, inadequate research capacity and lack of a critical mass to deal with the key climate issues.
In contrast to ex ante approach, an ex post analysis would base its valuation on the observed actions of the economic agent and how he responded to the realized environmental shock or climate outcome. There are few, if any, regions in the developing world where rural communities have had access to operational climate information and support tailored to their needs, for sufficient time to allow ex post assessment of use and benefits. Msangi et al. (2006) argue that understanding current use of ex post impact assessment methodology for evaluation of agricultural research investments CHAPTER 1 · Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Summary and the Way Forward 7 will enable advocates of climate applications to collect baseline information and prepare to provide credible evidence of uptake and benefit as it occurs.